{
  "state": "KY",
  "name": "Contractor market size, KY",
  "publisher": "Level",
  "publisher_url": "https://levelcfo.com",
  "last_updated": "2026-07-18",
  "license": "Free to cite with attribution to Level (levelcfo.com).",
  "attribution": "Level analysis. National contractor-services revenue anchors (roofing ~$70B, US Census 2022 Economic Census NAICS 238160 receipts; HVAC services ~$24B; commercial janitorial ~$60B) are allocated to states by each state's share of housing and commercial activity. Competitor counts are US Census employer firms (SUSB), not the broader all-records universe.",
  "confidence": "Directional market sizing, not an independent per-state survey. National totals are anchored to definition-matched published figures (contractor-services revenue, not materials markets); the state distribution is a modeled share and residential vs commercial is applied as a national-average split, not measured per state. Figures are estimates, ranges where noted.",
  "denominator_note": "Competitor counts are US Census employer firms (Statistics of U.S. Businesses): businesses with paid employees, which is the universe that actually competes for $1M+ contracts. It excludes the large tail of no-payroll sole proprietors (who average well under $100K/yr). Revenue-tier splits use the SUSB receipt-size tables (2017, the latest Census publishes receipts for). HVAC is reported as its analyst-estimated share of the combined plumbing+heating+AC NAICS 238220 code, since Census does not isolate HVAC.",
  "sources": {
    "housing_counts": "US Census ACS (DP04, B25001, B25024, B25035)",
    "commercial_activity": "US Census County Business Patterns + Economic Census (commercial establishment and payroll share by state)",
    "permits": "US Census Building Permits Survey (public county and state building-permit records)",
    "property_characteristics": "Public county tax-assessor and building-permit records",
    "firm_counts": "US Census Statistics of U.S. Businesses (SUSB), employer firms by revenue tier (2017 receipt-size, 2022 firm totals), NAICS 238160 / 238220 / 561720",
    "national_anchors": "US Census 2022 Economic Census (roofing receipts); industry research for HVAC services and commercial janitorial, definition-matched to contractor-services revenue"
  },
  "trades": [
    {
      "trade": "cleaning",
      "serviceable_annual_demand_usd": 768789000,
      "residential_annual_demand_usd": 0,
      "commercial_annual_demand_usd": 768789000,
      "commercial_share_pct": 100,
      "employer_firms_total": 500,
      "firms_1m_5m": 40,
      "firms_5m_10m": 8,
      "firms_10m_25m": 3,
      "method": "Commercial janitorial serviceable demand = the national commercial-janitorial services market allocated to the state by a modeled commercial-activity share (nonfarm-employment weighted). This is a modeled proxy, not a measured state estimate. Firm counts are US Census SUSB employer firms (businesses with paid employees). Cleaning is unpermitted work, so there is no building-permit signal."
    },
    {
      "trade": "hvac",
      "serviceable_annual_demand_usd": 334194000,
      "residential_annual_demand_usd": 183807000,
      "commercial_annual_demand_usd": 150387000,
      "commercial_share_pct": 45,
      "employer_firms_total": 414,
      "firms_1m_5m": 111,
      "firms_5m_10m": 22,
      "firms_10m_25m": 11,
      "method": "Total serviceable demand = residential + commercial, allocated to the state from the corrected national services-market anchor by a modeled housing + commercial-activity share (not a measured state floorspace estimate). Residential tracks Census single-family stock and replacement cycle; commercial uses a nonfarm-employment-weighted share. Firm counts are US Census SUSB employer firms (paid-employee businesses that compete for $1M+ work), not a registry pull. Building-permit records inform value MIX only (partial capture)."
    },
    {
      "trade": "roofing",
      "serviceable_annual_demand_usd": 1011673000,
      "residential_annual_demand_usd": 586770000,
      "commercial_annual_demand_usd": 424903000,
      "commercial_share_pct": 42,
      "employer_firms_total": 218,
      "firms_1m_5m": 66,
      "firms_5m_10m": 8,
      "firms_10m_25m": 6,
      "method": "Total serviceable demand = residential + commercial, allocated to the state from the corrected national services-market anchor by a modeled housing + commercial-activity share (not a measured state floorspace estimate). Residential tracks Census single-family stock and replacement cycle; commercial uses a nonfarm-employment-weighted share. Firm counts are US Census SUSB employer firms (paid-employee businesses that compete for $1M+ work), not a registry pull. Building-permit records inform value MIX only (partial capture)."
    }
  ]
}